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England: Any Studies In “Vaccine Effectiveness” That Include Data Before June 2021 Should Be Disregarded

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What caused the winter wave to be as severe as the original spring epidemic? Was Alpha as transmissible and virulent as Wuhan or was the host compromised by the mRNA injections?

To answer these questions, in his third and final episode of the “Red Pill Report,” Joel Smalley presented his final analysis of the deaths by date of occurrence and single age in England between 2014 and 2022.

You can listen to the first episode HERE and read about the second episode HERE.

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By Joel Smalley

Ever since I was caught off-guard in early 2021 when the weekly deaths release blew past my forecast, I have been on a quest to discover why.

Although, I can still not present anything that I think is totally conclusive, I will, nevertheless, present my leading hypothesis.

If we begin by examining excess deaths of 5 to 24-year-olds between Sept 2020 and May 2021, in fact, mercifully we find that there are none.

At least we can confirm again that Covid-19 does not affect young people. Let’s also remind ourselves that the mRNA injections do not stop infection or transmission. Even if they did, young people are not human shields. There is no beneficial case for injecting any healthy person under the age of 25. Period.

There is also scant evidence of excess deaths in the 25 to 44-year-olds too. In fact, I estimate less than 200 excess deaths, representing just 0.0001% of that population.

However, in spite of there being excess deaths in older age groups during autumn 2020, what does manifest for this age group only does so from the third week of Dec 2020, two weeks after mass injections.

Although the number of injections in those first two weeks looks small relative to the rest of the campaign, it still numbers over 75,000 “prioritised” healthcare workers and clinically vulnerable.

This is actually a sizeable number given the potential for this age group to be the driver of the Alpha wave.

For the 45 to 59-year-olds, it is clear that there was residual impact from the Wuhan strain in autumn 2020, which apparently was waning in the days running up to the start of mass injections.

Again, we can witness the emergence of a distinct, new wave around the third week of Dec 2020 but this time it is much more severe for this age group, resulting in almost 4,000 deaths compared to 1,300 for the tail end of Wuhan.

In total, excess deaths for the season represent 0.043% of the population.

A further 91,000 are vaccinated by 22 December, taking the total number of healthcare workers and clinically vulnerable to more than 165,000.

We observe an identical pattern for the 60 to 74-year-olds with 1,600 excess deaths in the autumn and 4,000 in the winter, 0.203% of the population in total.

We observe a similar pattern for the 75 to 79-year-olds with 3,200 excess deaths in the autumn and 6,400 in the winter, 0.410% of the population in total.

However, it is noteworthy that the winter wave for this cohort appears to start around the beginning of Dec 2020, a week before mass injections begin. We must consider this carefully in our hypothesis that the injection compromising the host’s immunity, in spite of the scientific evidence supporting this, is wholly responsible for the winter wave.

Similarly, the 80+ year olds have two distinct waves, 5,300 and 28,000 deaths respectively, representing 1.133% of the population.

Again, the winter wave appears to start a week before mass injecting begins. However, there is evidently substantially more injecting occurring earlier in this age cohort which appears to synchronise with spikes in death.

But, given the lack of correlation between injecting and deaths for younger age cohorts, we cannot be conclusive about this, even though there is the possibility or likelihood of injections affecting the frailer cohort more.

So, that’s the summary of excess deaths across different age groups in autumn and winter 2020-21.

My hypothesis is that although the mRNA injections may not have compromised the host sufficiently to increase deaths in the younger age cohorts, it may have been sufficient to facilitate infection and transmission.

This has, of course, been affirmed in analyses of various surveillance bulletins from around the world, including the UK but it is not strong enough for me to stake my reputation on!

What I would go all-in on though, is the fact that all of the excess death in this second season of Covid occurred well before any potential benefit of injecting could have been achieved (as evidenced by the grey shaded areas in all the charts).

Thus, any studies in “vaccine effectiveness” that include data before June 2021, such as the ones by the ONS that we have already comprehensively eviscerated, are complete junk and should be disregarded, and the authors really questioned on either their competence or integrity.

The other thing that remains unequivocal is the fact that Covid-19 is a heterogenous risk and therefore amenable to risk-stratification on age. We said it way back in March 2020. It remains the case.

Assuming everyone was exposed one way or another, these would be the excess death fatality rates broken down by age. They look remarkably similar to the flu, don’t they, “in spite” of the potential impact of the mRNA injections, also bearing in mind excess deaths could be caused by Covid measures too?

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1 year ago

You are definitely on to something. Your hypothesis is corroborated here:
Analysis By German Prof: “Thousands Of Hidden Deaths Daily” …May Be Greatest Medical Debacle In Human History (
“For the period of calendar week 1-38, 2021, Figures 8 and 9 show strong peaks in non-Covid mortality for the unvaccinated 60-69 and 70-79 age groups while the mortality among the vaccinated stayed steady.”
“.. in Europe the status of “vaccinated” first gets assigned 14 days after getting the final jab. Thus any deaths occurring before this, ends up being counted as an “unvaccinated death”! So if a patient who got a vaccine dies less than 14 days later, he/she gets counted as an unvaccinated death. This is how vaccine deaths are getting hidden. And there many thousands.”
Lastly, I agree with the sentiments expressed here – that clinical trials forced the variants to emerge. (timed to begin at 2 minutes 3 seconds).
Big pharma is performing clinical trials for injections for the BA4/5 – which will cause the next strain of the virus (which is a new virus, not a strain?).
All the best

1 year ago

you are definitely on to something. Your hypothesis is corroborated here:…>>

Jayna Dinnyes
Jayna Dinnyes
1 year ago

Well, IMPO (In My Prayerful Opinion), ALL info from the MSM should
be suspect. That is, ALL except the court forced-released Pfizer documents of this year. THEY should be believed! After all, Pfizer did not want them public for 75 years! Some important words in them are “they need to only vaccinate 35% of the population who will then infect the rest through the air they breathe and the touch of their skin” with maladies like “blood clots.” We should all take Swanson Vitamins’ 600 mg. NAC (to prevent all Coronavirus’ and Doctor’s Best Nattokinase (a natural Japanese med that prevents and heals blood clots.) These brands prove to me that they work! I post publicly on MeWe.

A Thought About Vaccination.png
Kathy Dopp
Kathy Dopp
1 year ago

Interesting discussion but seems to exclude consideration of the vaccination start dates and rates by age groups. Joel Smalley’s statement “all of the excess death in this second season of Covid occurred well before any potential benefit of injecting could have been achieved” ignores the, albeit lesser used, single shot J&J claims of effectiveness after 1 shot and that fact that vaccines, in my understanding, are *not* supposed to result in *increased* susceptibility to the disease being vaccinated against after shot #1 of a 2-shot sequence. Or is that considered normal? Also, this discussion seems to assume it would be normal for more excess deaths to occur from a viral respiratory infection in the second season than the first one, which doesn’t seem epidemiologically normal behavior, so I would have liked to see also the 2020 spring wave included with the analysis. I like the way Joel Smalley broke the fall and winter 2020-21 waves into 2 waves – a smaller initial wave, followed by the larger ones that spiked higher after Covid injections began. Good written discussion.

1 year ago

[…] to conclude that any studies on “vaccine effectiveness” that include data prior to June 2021 should be disregarded due to manipulations in risk stratification analysis among other […]