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On Monday, The Guardian published an article claiming that climate change is to blame for extreme weather – it is false and based on flawed “attribution studies” that lack rigorous peer review.
Attribution studies use climate models to simulate extreme weather events, but these models often reflect overheated worst-case scenarios rather than actual observations.
Empirical data does not support claims of worsening severe weather, with long-term trends for many extreme weather events remaining stable or declining, contradicting the narrative presented by The Guardian and other media outlets.
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The Guardian is Flat Wrong About Blaming Climate for Extreme Weather
By Anthony Watts as published by Climate Realism on 19 November 2024
On Monday 18 November, The Guardian published an “explainer” piece titled ‘How do we know that the climate crisis is to blame for extreme weather?’ This is false. Actual data on extreme weather does not support their claim, and the claim is mostly based on flawed “attribution studies.”
The narrative that severe weather events are worsening due to climate change has become a mainstay in today’s media. However, a closer look at the data and the science behind these claims often reveals inconsistencies that should give us pause. Attribution studies, which are widely used to link specific extreme weather events to climate change, frequently lack rigorous peer review and are published hastily to garner headlines, raising significant concerns about their reliability.
Attribution studies work by using climate models to simulate two different worlds: one influenced by human-caused climate change and another without it. These models then assess the likelihood of extreme weather events in each world. Yet the validity of such studies is only as good as the models and assumptions underpinning them. This methodology is prone to overestimating risks because climate models are often reflecting overheated worst-case scenarios rather than actual observations.
Moreover, these studies are often published without proper peer review. Climate Realism has documented how media outlets run stories based on these model-driven studies, ignoring real-world data that often contradicts the alarming conclusions. For example, articles frequently cite reports that heatwaves, floods, or hurricanes are “worsening” without disclosing that these claims rely on theoretical simulations rather than measured evidence.
Empirical data does not support claims of worsening severe weather. In fact, the long-term trends for many extreme weather events have remained stable or even declined. According to Climate at a Glance, heatwaves in the United States were most severe in the 1930s, with temperatures and frequency outstripping recent records. The number of strong hurricanes making landfall in the United States has not increased either. The country even experienced a record 12-year lull in major hurricanes between 2005 and 2017.
Additionally, droughts have not intensified in the US. The nation saw historically low levels of drought in recent years, with 2017 and 2019 setting records for the smallest percentage of the country affected by drought. These data points highlight a crucial disconnect between what is reported and what is actually happening.
Mass media plays a big role in how the public perceives climate and weather. Unfortunately, they have a well-documented tendency to sensationalise weather events and uncritically promote alarming narratives. An example from Climate Realism shows how news outlets linked severe flooding in Dubai to climate change, based entirely on speculative attribution claims. This type of reporting not only skews public understanding but also undermines scientific credibility.
Journalists often rush to blame every unusual weather pattern on climate change, frequently citing studies that rely more on models than actual historical weather data. In doing so, they skip the due diligence required to present a balanced view. They rarely report when data contradicts the narrative of intensifying extreme weather, which fosters an atmosphere of unnecessary panic and misinformation.
The media’s role in perpetuating climate alarmism cannot be overstated. By favouring sensational headlines over fact-checked reporting, they fail to uphold their responsibility to inform the public accurately. Instead of scrutinising the limitations and assumptions of attribution studies, the media often present speculative findings as settled science. This lack of due diligence not only misguides policy discussions but also erodes trust in legitimate climate research. In the case of The Guardian, Climate Realism has documented dozens of instances of such fact-free sensationalism.
In an era where facts should guide action, it is crucial for journalists and media outlets to prioritise accuracy and depth over sensationalism. Only then can we have a rational, data-driven conversation about climate and extreme weather – one that recognises uncertainties and avoids the pitfalls of media fear-mongering over unsupportable climate claims.
About the Author
Anthony Watts is a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute. Watts has been in the weather business both in front of, and behind the camera as an on-air television meteorologist since 1978, and currently does daily radio forecasts. He has created weather graphics presentation systems for television and specialised weather instrumentation, as well as co-authored peer-reviewed papers on climate issues. He operates the most viewed website in the world on climate, the award-winning website ‘Watts Up With That’.
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Categories: Breaking News, World News
The Guardian is a woke, luvvy, left-liberal toilet 🚽 roll. The opposite end of the fallacious Hegelian construct- The Daily Mail. Pick yer poison! Choose YOUR half/”side” in the Hegelian dialectical puppet show!!
It’s all about scare the people, keep them under the thumb, I wish more people would stop believing this BS and wake the hell up. It’s all fabricated !!!
Maybe you should check your sources. Yan Zhuang must be working for the CCP. Here is the truth – seeing I couldn’t email it to you.
Hi Rhonda
I couldn’t believe the diatribe you published in the Expose today regarding the New Zealand Hikoi. The from Yan Zhaung is a CCP setup!!
Here is the TRUTH about that hikoi (hikoi means walk and was revered – this was a cas of taxpayer funded car hire and flight into and out of cities throughout the north island – for them to have walked they would have had to do 117km per day!!)
Please look at all of this and PLEASE retract the rubbish from that Chinese journalist!!
Yesterday’s hikoi wasn’t grassroots – it was a Māori Party astroturf.
What most in the mainstream media are not reporting is that the organiser of the hikoi is the son of the current sitting Māori Party MP Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, is employed by the Māori Party, and stood as a candidate for the Māori Party.
The company that fundraised and coordinated the hikoi called “Toitu Te Tiriti” was incorporated in September by the wife of Rawiri Waititi and the daughter of the Māori Party president John Tamahere.
Driving and flying to parliament in their Car-koi was nothing but a recruitment and fundraising tool for the Māori Party – and the Labour Party ignorantly joined in.
The Māori Party just used and manipulated thousands of Māori yesterday for their own pointless political stunt. They staged a protest against a piece of legislation that they already knew is not going to pass into law.
The faux outrage is obvious for all who see it for what it was. Their aim was to gather anyone and everyone no matter what their cause – including patched gang members.
It’s the same reason they conducted a sham haka in the House last week. It was a disgraceful pre-planned and coordinated stunt that served only to intimidate and undermine the running of the House and grab as many headlines as they could.
They are a bunch of extremists and middle New Zealand has had enough.
New Zealand is a democracy whether the Māori Party like it or not. And using ‘Māori culture’ as an excuse for their disgraceful behaviour is an insult to Māoridom.
No ordinary kiwi, Māori or non-Māori, should accept the behaviour and intent of this Party of Extremists.
They don’t want democracy, they want anarchy.
They don’t want one country, one people, one law – they want separatism, division, and laws based on race. They state it specifically.
And the Labour Party have fallen over themselves to try and join them in their race to the bottom.
There are some more conservative Labour MPs who know they are coming close to a point of no return.
Their Party has already left middle New Zealand a long time ago, and their Party is going to leave them hanging in the wind soon too.
They must wake up at night in cold sweats thinking about how much Labour is now fighting for the space on the woke far-left instead of fighting for middle New Zealand.
Since 1867 Māori have been elected to Parliament with just four winning a general seat until the introduction of MMP when we saw the exponential growth of the number of Māori MPs.
Right now, we have the record number of Māori in Cabinet of any government – more than all the Māori Party MPs combined.
All the Party of Extremists want to do is act with utter contempt and ignorance at the progress that has been accomplished.
They are trying to tear that all down for their own ignorant misguided political gain.
They are trying to tear down our country along with them.
We are not going to concede or yield to these separatists, these people who spew an anthem of hate against other people.
We will not be bullied by these cultural elitist extremists.
We stand for one people, one country, one flag, united as one – Māori and non-Māori.
It is the only way our country will ever succeed – and we will never give up fighting for that.
Here are other journalists who were at the Hikoi in Wellington – this was a political and corporate setup. I’m the first to admit that David Seymore is a prat, but some (very very few) tried to stop a conversation – they want censorship of what we can talk about. This truly is a small set of extremists who are pulling in people who align with victimhood.
Winston Peters is a Maori – deputy Prime Minister – delivering the above in parliament – Yan Zhaung has conveniently left out all of this information
Shane Jones – another highly educated Maori delivering his speech in Parliament
Yan Zhuang conveniently left out that the gangs were paid to march – to be a patched member they have to rape, pillage and steal!!! She also omitted to say that this was a bill that was NEVER GOING TO GET PAST IT’S FIRST READING! NEVER!! (This is where David Seymore is a prat but he had to bring it forward because it was part of his election manifesto – they had already given it the no-go).
And lastly (well it’s not lastly – it’s all I can give time to) Sean Plunkett who was at the Hikoi to find out what people thought they were marching for. Having problems finding that one.
This is about uneducated extremist segregation, racism and division, and corrupt profit tactics!
Hi Meg, I didn’t post an article about New Zealand today. And I don’t recall publishing an article about the “New Zealand Hikoi” or coming across “Yan Zhuang” in any of the articles I’ve published over the years. When I search on The Expose website for those two terms no results are returned which means no one else has published an article about or referenced to them either.
Which article contains the “diatribe” you are referring to? Can you post a link to it?
PS My name is Rhoda not Rhonda 🙂
Well they are still at it with the HAARP machine down here in Florida. We had a “normal” pattern thunderstorm last night, so I went looking at the doppler radar for the HAARP energy beam signature. Sure enough, they were trying to increase the energy and mass of the storm and you could see it again. So nobody can tell me they’re not manipulating the weather and calling it “climate change”. It’s would be more accurate for the Guardian to do some journalism on the HAARP machine. But of course, that will never happen.
Anything in the MSM just believe the opposite.
I hope they mentioned the global warming, just because I can’t recall such days-long minus degrees in November we are experiencing now.
[…] by Rhoda Wilson, Expose News: […]