Keir Starmer’s Labour Party currently has 412 members in the UK Parliament.  Using advanced modelling techniques, Electoral Calculus estimated at the end of March the probability of the various possible outcomes at the next general election and predicted that Labour would lose 213 seats.

Let’s not lose touch…Your Government and Big Tech are actively trying to censor the information reported by The Exposé to serve their own needs. Subscribe now to make sure you receive the latest uncensored news in your inbox…

Stay Updated!

Stay connected with News updates by Email

Are You a Human? 9 + 9 =

---

To have a majority in the UK, a political party must win at least 326 out of the 650 seats in the House of Commons.  Based on opinion polls conducted from 6 March 2025 to 28 March 2025, Electoral Calculus predicts that Labour will lose 213 seats in the next general election, which is scheduled to be held no later than 15 August 2029.

They predict that Labour will win 199 seats, Conservatives 156 and Reform 167, with the caveat that “the future is never certain.”

“In terms of seats, we calculate that the three big parties would be fairly equal, but Labour would (just) be the largest party. However, a Reform-Conservative coalition could be the most likely option in practice, albeit with a minimal majority.  But the situation is very fluid,” Electoral Calculus said.

A Few days after Electoral Calculus announced the results of its polls, Britain’s senior psephologist Professor Richard Rose penned an article:

At last July’s election, Nigel Farage’s party … took eight times as many votes from the Conservatives as it did from Keir Starmer’s party.

Now that Labour is in control of government, it has become the victim of Reform’s protest appeal. In the average of March opinion polls the two parties are nearly tied for first place with support for each just under 25 per cent.

Labour is still forecast as likely to win the most seats in the House of Commons according to MRP analysis, but its projected 189 MPs is less than half the total it now has and it is 137 seats short of a parliamentary majority. A breakdown of Labour losses shows that it would lose 121 seats to Reform candidates if an election were held today.

With the next general election more than four years away, the Labour government has lots of time to recover. On present poll figures, MRP analysis shows that there is a one in ten chance that Labour could gain a parliamentary majority of 331 seats. Neither Reform nor the Conservatives have even a long-shot chance of winning a majority of MPs. But there is also a one in ten chance that Labour could end up with less than one hundred MPs in the next House of Commons.

Labour Haemorrhaging Seats to Reform, by Prof. Richard Rose as published by Electoral Calculus, 1 April 2025

With the local elections being held on 1 May, send a strong message and help make Labour’s nightmare become a reality.

Featured image: images taken from ‘Farage as likely to be next PM as Starmer, public believes’, The Telegraph, 19 April 2025

The Expose Urgently Needs Your Help…

Can you please help to keep the lights on with The Expose’s honest, reliable, powerful and truthful journalism?

Your Government & Big Tech organisations
try to silence & shut down The Expose.

So we need your help to ensure
we can continue to bring you the
facts the mainstream refuses to.

The government does not fund us
to publish lies and propaganda on their
behalf like the Mainstream Media.

Instead, we rely solely on your support. So
please support us in our efforts to bring
you honest, reliable, investigative journalism
today. It’s secure, quick and easy.

Please choose your preferred method below to show your support.

Stay Updated!

Stay connected with News updates by Email

Daily Digest

US News Posts

UK News Posts

World News Posts

All News Posts

Are You a Human? 2 + 8 =

J.R.R. Tolkien, AI and Transhumanism

Why Do Governments Keep Lying About Net Zero?

As the UK seeks to nationalise the rail network, South Africa has learnt nationalisation’s pitfalls and is seeking privatisation

The AI bubble is bursting

Rhoda Wilson

While previously it was a hobby culminating in writing articles for Wikipedia (until things made a drastic and undeniable turn in 2020) and a few books for private consumption, since March 2020 I have become a full-time researcher and writer in reaction to the global takeover that came into full view with the introduction of covid-19. For most of my life, I have tried to raise awareness that a small group of people planned to take over the world for their own benefit. There was no way I was going to sit back quietly and simply let them do it once they made their final move.

See Full Bio