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Division, Distraction, Problem, Reaction, Solution: There will be NO Invasion of Ukraine before June

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Over the last month or two, Western media have been publishing ever more hysterical articles about the immanent invasion of Ukraine by Russia.  This has largely been fuelled by the Biden Administration.  



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By OneAngryAussie

We’ve seen urgent meetings of various leaders, sometimes at the opposite ends ridiculously large tables.  We see reports of arms shipments urgently flown into Ukraine and troops deployed to various NATO countries.

Ukrainian President Zelensky was reported by RT News as saying to US officials “Should you or anybody else have additional information about a 100% invasion of Ukraine by Russia, starting on February 16, please give us such information,”  Apparently, no such information was forthcoming.  Why?  

On 15th February it was reported that President Zelensky along with senior Ukrainian officials were contradicting the US narrative that a Russian invasion was days away.  The prediction then was it would occur on 16th February.  Fortunately, the residents of western Ukraine didn’t awake to the rumble of Russian tanks through their streets.  Yesterday there’s a report by Estonian sources that the invasion is now due in mid to late February.

Today, President Biden’s back in the news, telling reporters  that “every indication that we have is that they are prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine.”  C’mon man!  Wolf!  I say.

Indeed, the never ending Russian invasion predictions look more and more like some end-of-the-world cult, who keep changing the date when the sun rises after every predicted doomsday.

President Zelensky and his defence ministry officials are confident that the Russians will not invade their country in the coming weeks.   Why?  How do they know this?

If you want to know when Russia is likely to attack any of her western neighbours, one only needs to look to WW2 and the major offensives of both the German and Soviet armies.

They started summer offensives in June or mostly mid-July, that ended mostly late September or early October.  They started winter offensives in late November or mostly December, most finishing by late February or March, with a couple of outliers running into April and May. From 1942 no large scale operations were launched outside of these periods, but there were some operations that were continuations of ongoing campaigns.  It was mostly what Germans might call sitzkreig unless you were at Stalingrad or Leningrad.

Why is this so?  The weather.  The spring thaw and autumn rains make the countryside impassable for vehicles, tracked or wheeled.  The mud.  There’s a word for it in Russian, rasputitsa.  There’s no English equivalent, though it translates as mudslides or impassability, but better describes the “season of mud”.

Many historical documentaries of the WW2 Russian campaign have footage of the stalled German advance in October and November 1941, with trucks and tanks bogged to the axles and troops struggling knee deep in mud.  The Germans learned what rasputitsa means the hard way.

If you look at the Russian offensives, they mostly kicked off in July because they had to wait until late May for the ground to dry enough to start trucking supplies up to the front, building them up in June.

When Ukrainian President Zelensky contradicted the Americans saying a Russian invasion is not immanent, he didn’t need any spies to tell him their secret plans.  He knows what the Ukrainian steppes are like at this time of year.  No general in their right mind is going to order their tanks forward, only to get bogged axle deep in mud and be sitting ducks for the enemy.

Similarly, the recent Russian exercises were winter exercises.  They had to finish soon and get back to their transport depots before the thaw leaves them stranded for a couple of months.

Were Russia planning to invade Ukraine, they’d have likely done it in December, or now, they have to postpone it until June because of the weather.  Should fighting erupt in the coming weeks, it would most likely be as a result of a provocation by Ukraine or more likely,  agent provocateurs operating at the behest of an interested party, shall we say.

As to the motives underlying the American policy towards Ukraine and the war hysteria they are promoting, one can but speculate.  Could it be a psyop to get people in the West afraid of nuclear warfare again?   We could do with new fear now that covid is scaring fewer and fewer people.

Could there be a desire to undermine the Ukrainian economy?   Ukrainian authorities are describing the economic costs of borrowing and trade difficulties caused by rumours of impending war.  Are there some seeking to profit from short positions in Ukrainian assets or desirous of purchasing assets at bargain basement prices?

Could there be a desire to drive a wedge between Russia and EU NATO members?  How would that impact future EU energy purchasing?  Is there an alternate supplier hoping to benefit from a shortfall or curtailment of Russian gas supplies?

Perhaps a little foreign war as a distraction from disastrous domestic economic policies?  Shoring up support for a failing administration with a wave of nationalism ahead of elections later this year?  Maybe.   This works for BoJo too, who also seems to be banging the war drums over the last couple of weeks to drown out the noise of Downing Street parties.

Could there be government hawks inspired by the movie Wag the Dog! to start a little war to shore up Presidential approval?  But, unlike the fictional movie where the country they pick on was a puppy, this time they’re messing with a bear.

It seems to me that the only leaders behaving like statesmen this past week are Presidents Putin and Zelensky.  The others look like a bunch of right berks, Chicken Littles screaming the sky is falling.

Sources:

https://www.rt.com/russia/549399-us-prediction-imminent-invasion/

https://www.rt.com/russia/549477-ukraine-comments-imminent-russian-invasion/

https://www.rt.com/russia/549596-ukraine-losing-billions-western-hysteria/

https://www.rt.com/russia/549731-biden-ukraine-invasion-every-indication/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_operations_of_the_Red_Army_in_World_War_II

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Paul Dale
Paul Dale
7 months ago

Read Putin’s lips. He will not invade The Ukraine. Uncle Schmuel and Perfidious Albion are desperate for a war to save their asses. Russia holds all the cards. The US will create the false flag. Russia will play the long game and watch the west implode.

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A Person
A Person
7 months ago

BoJo and JoBo are 2 peas in a pod. Maybe you just shouldn’t vote in politicians with the initial letters ‘BJ’ in either order.

Napoleon and Hitler both took on Russia in the winter and got smashed up. So JoBo could end up in famous company on that one.

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Charles B.
Charles B.
7 months ago

The last thing Putin wants is a war with Ukraine: nothing to win, everything to lose.
In the meantime Russia is looking more and more to the East, Ukraine is becoming a beggar state and the EU elites slaves of the US.
By the way: at least the white helmets used ‘Oscar winning’ actors in their false flags.

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gugy
gugy
7 months ago

The only invading will be done by the filthy us/uk armies. Putin doesn’t really care what you do, because you’re yesterday’s news.

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Kryptos
Kryptos
7 months ago

It’s Feb and invasion started – June estimate way off!
Ukraine is the ‘Bread Basket of Europe’ and has Massive Coal and Iron deposits – Putin wants it back. A French company was already managing some wheat fields after Ukraine started selling them off.

oneangryaussie
oneangryaussie
7 months ago

I gotta admit, I got this one wrong folks. Perhaps the Biden administration did have the dates of the invasion and Russia delayed it to (a) make them look like hysterical warmongers and (b) lull the Ukrainian forces into a false sense of security when said invasions failed to materialise. It’s all very Spy vs Spy.

From what I’ve seen so far, what constrained military campaigns in 1942 have less impact on the Russian army in 2022:

  • Destroying Ukraine’s airforce on the ground and air-defences leaves Russia with freedom of movement.
  • Paratroops and airborne infantry can deploy far from the front lines and be resupplied by air, to hold key facilities and positions.
  • The road network is vastly improved since the 1940s. Who cares if tank tracks chew up a few potholes…
  • They seem to be avoiding civilian activity, I’ve seen videos of cars driving unmolested on roads congested with columns of armoured vehicles and military trucks.

We don’t see much footage of Ukrainian and Russian military engagements. Seems odd. RT showed a video of Russian and Ukrainian military personnel jointly guarding Chernobyl site. Interesting? Propaganda? Who can take anything we see on a TV screen or the internet at face value these days?

It seems the Russians are moving rapidly, intending to have this as a fait accompli within a few days. As the thaw sets in, it will make it very difficult for any opposing army to move in if they control the roads.

Reports of arms shipments by NATO countries is worrying. Military trucks and aircraft delivering munitions to a belligerent are a legitimate target.

How will the West respond to Russians destroying aircraft or convoys delivering munitions?

This would seem like an excuse to get involved and broaden the conflict.