Somaliland has been fighting for independence from Somalia for decades, but still no country formally acknowledges its sovereignty. The US, however, looks increasingly like it will consider recognising the East African state – but not for free. The price tag may well be the acceptance of Palestinians currently in Gaza, who would be relocated, clearing the way for Israel. The result of which would award Israel all of the remaining Palestinian territories, the US could announce a headline victory and claim it brokered a peaceful end to the war, and Somaliland would win the prize they’ve been chasing since 1991.Â
US Politicians Are Suddenly Interested in Somaliland
Recently, Republicans in the US House of Representatives, including Representative Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, Representative Pat Harrigan of North Carolina, and other key conservative heavyweights, have backed the push for recognition.
“All territorial claims by the Federal Republic of Somalia over the area known as Somaliland are invalid and without merit,” said the text of a bill introduced in June, calling for the US to recognise Somaliland “as a separate, independent country”. At around the same time, media reports surfaced that said Israel had reached out to Somaliland as a possible location to resettle Palestinians it plans to expel from Gaza.
Human rights advocates from Somaliland have voiced concern that the forced resettlement of Palestinians could “render Somaliland complicit in the genocide against Palestinians in Gaza”, with worries that countries who previously sympathised with Somaliland may potentially “withdrawing their support”.
What’s Happened So Far?
Boston Consulting Group (BCG) – one of one of the “Big Three” management consultancies – is a leading global management firm. Multiple outlets have reported that BCG modelled scenarios to move Palestinians to Somaliland for Israeli business figures. The Financial Times confirmed BCG’s involvement in the planning, but the company leadership disavowed the work done and the people behind the modelling were apparently fired as a result. What it tells us though, is that the operational blueprints do indeed exist. Â
Separately, the Associated Press reported that the US and Israeli officials sounded out three East African destinations for rehoming the displaced Palestinians: Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland. There was immediate pushback in the region, and officials from Somalia and Somaliland said they had no knowledge of such talks.
Another story from Al Jazeera linked the motives together: would recognition for Somaliland be tied to taking Palestinians? The same coverage noted how eager Somaliland figures are for the US to consider their recognition. But is acceptance of Palestinian refugees just going to help Israel clear the path to victory? Or would it save the lives of people who are currently at risk in the current war?
Who Wins and Who Loses?
Investigative accounts online also point to the strategic value of Berbera, in Somaliland. Together, the port’s critical location on the Red Sea, the BCG’s uncovered modelling, and AP’s reported sounding out of various East African states for resettlement all make it sound like a realistic endgame in which various parties all feel like they’ve won.
But what about the Israel-Palestine conflict? Does this provide a peaceful end, or make everything easier for Israel to claim the remainder of the Palestinian Territories? One person behind the scenes told the Financial Times, “by accepting the Gazans who relocate temporarily and voluntarily, a country will get an injection of population that will have an economic benefit that clearly could be significant”.
Would Somaliland Be Helping Israel, Saving Palestinians, or Both?
A recognition and relocation pact would create an off ramp that allows Israel to declare success while presenting a humanitarian alternative for civilians who may not otherwise survive if the war continues. However, the threat of relocation, which President Trump has said will allow the redevelopment of the Gaza Strip, has been branded as ethnic cleansing by rights groups, international bodies and foreign officials.
Many do not believe the deportation would be either voluntary or temporary – which is how it’s currently framed. In short, critics ask whether Somaliland would be enabling a territorial takeover in all but name if they agreed to trade a relocation route for their own recognition.
Why Somaliland Might Say Yes
Recognition of its independence would allow Somaliland to access development finance, bilateral aid, and formal security partnerships. Berber sits on the Gulf of Aden, which is a corridor considered critical by Washington. US policy circles have openly floated recognition for strategic reasons, including Red Sea security and countering China, a superpower also gaining strategic ground in the region. If recognition also came with guaranteed funds for large scale humanitarian resettlement, Hargeisa could pitch it as both a nationhood milestone and a duty to assist fellow Muslims in danger.
Those in support of the plans say that allowing a voluntary pathway to safety, frontloading housing, education and jobs in the country using Western money, and framing Somaliland as preventing mass death and averting Genocide, would see the recognition trade as a moral incentive that makes a lifesaving corridor possible.
It Might Not Happen After All
Somalia claims sovereignty over Somaliland and would mobilise against any unilateral move that looks like partition. Officials in Mogadishu and Hargeisa have all denied involvement in relocation talks, and Sudan has rejected the idea outright. Regional media warns that any coercive transfer would be destabilising and illegal, meaning execution may be more difficult than it first sounds.
Politically speaking, Somaliland is vocally pro-Palestinian. A transactional swap that looks like facilitating Israeli objectives could be costly unless packaged as protection for civilians with full rights and international guarantees. Sources for Al Jazeera bluntly said that, overall, the move is “not worth it”.
What to Look Out for Next
- Careful language in US and Somaliland statements about “humanitarian pathways” and “voluntary resettlement” as solutions for Palestinians under fire in GazaÂ
- Any other leaks similar to BCG’s uncovered modelling from other consultancies that detail the logistics, numbers and finances for African destinationsÂ
- Regional pushback at the African Union or Arab Leage that seeks to pre-empt any recognition linked to relocationÂ
Final Thought
There’s enough connecting the motives here to consider this a genuine possibility. A relocation model exists (even if it was disavowed by BCG), officials continue to explore African options for resettlement, and recognition of Somaliland is returning to policy debate. Nothing is set in stone yet, but there is a clear path by which global powers could claim to end a brutal war by simply moving people out of the way. Whether the normalisation of displacement, enabling Israel to reach its well-known end goal, would be viewed as a peaceful solution or a dangerous precedent, remains to be seen.Â
Join the Conversation
If Somaliland did accept an agreement on these terms, would they be enabling Israel or saving Palestinians? Do you think this is a viable solution to end the war in Gaza? Have you heard about this anywhere else? Add your thoughts below. Â
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Categories: Did You Know?, World News