AI is the new gold rush, but the money isn’t moving how most people think. In 2025 alone, OpenAI (creator of ChatGPT) and its partners have signed over $1 trillion worth of deals. The twist here is that OpenAI only actually made $4.3 billion in the first six months of the year, so where on earth is the money coming from?
Well, it never actually leaves the same circle of mega-companies. Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle, AMD, Microsoft, SoftBank, Meta and Google are all trading billions between each other in a suspicious, questionably legal financial merry-go-round. The result is soaring valuations, daily headlines, and stock prices that climb on promises rather than profits. Is it sustainable? Is it legal? And what happens when the music eventually stops?
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The Trillion Dollar Illusion: Who’s Paying Whom?
Let’s untangle the web. On paper, OpenAI and its partners have signed over $1 trillion in deals this year – more than most countries spend on their entire economies.
OpenAI’s shopping spree
- $300 billion to Oracle for infrastructure in $500 billion Stargate project, paid over 5 years, announced in September
- $22 billion to CoreWeave to use their data centres, which is packed with Nvidia GPUs
- Undisclosed, multi-billion dollar deals with Google for cloud services and Broadcom to build racks of OpenAI-designed chips
Where OpenAI’s money comes from
With a revenue of just $4 billion from January-June this year, the money must come from somewhere:
- $100 billion received from Nvidia, although much of this is used to lease Nvidia’s own GPUs back from them
- $14 billion from Microsoft, mostly through Azure cloud credits, since 2019
- A new deal with AMD to buy chips in exchange for a 10% equity stake – a headline that sent AMD’s stock soaring over 30% in a day
It doesn’t stop there: who else is involved?
- Nvidia – already an investor in CoreWeave – pledged over $6 billion to buy all CoreWeave’s unsold cloud capacity between now and 2032
- CoreWeave, meanwhile, buys its GPUs from Nvidia, which it then leases to other companies
- Oracle has spent $40 billion on Nvidia chips to build OpenAI’s data centres
- SoftBank has a $3 billion stake in Nvidia, and contributes to the Stargate project
- Meta has $14 billion invested in data-labelling firm Scale AI as of June this year, sent $10 billion to Google for cloud access, and another $14 billion to CoreWeave for AI infrastructure
Bottom line: billions in, billions out, but it all just circulates within the same pool.
Round-Tripping Is Illegal: So Why Do They Get Away With It?
Money going in circles is known as round-tripping. In simple terms, it’s when companies send money out the door through investments, purchases or partnerships, and then quietly receive it back through another channel. It makes activity and revenue look bigger than it really is.
For example:
- Company A invests in Company B
- Company B uses that investment to buy services or hardware from Company A
- Both can claim growth, revenue and success – without any new money entering the system
In accounting, this is strongly frowned upon. Regulators have cracked down on it in the past, but in big tech today, it’s happening in front of everyone – except it’s dressed up as “strategic partnerships” and “capacity commitments”.
When banks or individuals do this, it’s treated as money laundering and fraud. If you transferred a friend £10,000 just for them to send it straight back to you, so you could both claim higher income, you’d be breaking the law.
But when trillion-dollar corporations do it through investment agreements and supply contracts, it’s technically legal – because it all has a business justification. On paper, at least.
The Feedback Loop Making Billions
Every deal triggers a rush of market optimism. AMD’s stock jumped over 30% after its OpenAI announcement, adding billions to its market cap. Oracle’s shares hit all-time highs and made its CEO the richest man in the world for a short period, following its $300 billion infrastructure pledge. Nvidia’s valuation tops $4.5 trillion on continued optimism, growing with each announcement of GPU orders.
These stock moves are not based on delivered profits or increased performance – but rather anticipation alone. Essentially, press releases have become currency.
Fragile Foundations: What If It Doesn’t Work?
Analysts are nervous for a reason: OpenAI is now the single point of failure in this trillion-dollar chain. Every data centre, chip order and supply agreement depends on OpenAI continuing to grow at an impossible pace.
By 2030, it’s estimated that the industry needs to make $2 trillion in revenue per year to sustain its infrastructure commitments – but there’s already an $800 billion funding gap. If the capital markets tighten or investors lose patience, the whole system could collapse overnight.
And because the same few mega-companies are financially intertwined, a stumble by just one of them could bring them all down.
Final Thought
The AI boom is real, but the money behind it isn’t. Trillions are being pledged by companies that have no cash, and no real new capital is being generated. It’s the same pile of money cycling between a handful of tech giants, each transfer making everyone look richer, stronger and more dominant than they really are.
Is it sustainable? Will they all deliver on their promises? What happens if just one of them slips up?
Join the Conversation
Is this smart capitalism in action, or a trillion-dollar bubble ready to burst? Why can giant companies use round-tripping, but nobody else? Do you think they’ll pull it off, and what happens if they don’t? Let us know below.
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Categories: Did You Know?, World News