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ONS has finally released Deaths by Vaccination Status data for England – and its flawed

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During a parliamentary session on 24 January, Member of Parliament Andrew Bridgen asked Maria Caulfield, Department of Health and Social Care Under-Secretary: “The ONS have not issued mortality data by vaccination status since 31 of May last year … can [the Minister] inform the House when it will be published?”

As if she was a pre-programmed robot answering an entirely different question Caulfield responded: “There are a number of factors, which are the same factors that have driven excess deaths across the United Kingdom but also across Europe.”

The data in question is published in a report titled ‘Deaths by Vaccination Status’.  Yesterday, the Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) released this report containing data up to December 2022.

Joel Smally noted: “Sarah Caul [Head of Mortality Analysis at the ONS] added her commentary that was equally vacuous and also myopically focused on covid age-standardised mortality rates (ASMR) even though the non-covid ASMRs were consistently higher for the unvaccinated indicating that their dataset still needs a lot of cleaning up to remove whatever biases are responsible for that … I know my colleagues are picking through the anomalies in the ONS bulletin and will report on that in due course.”

Joel Smalley will take a closer look at the data in due course, as will John Dee. So keep an eye out on their Substack pages HERE and HERE respectively.

Dr. Clare Craig has looked at the latest data and found there are major flaws which need to be retracted and corrected. In the only table where it is possible to calculate a population denominator, “there is no data at all for males [ ] after September,” she tweeted.

“Without data for the males it is impossible to see what size denominator has been used.

“They have also completely omitted data on children with no explanation given.

“There are other issues too.”

You can read Dr. Craig’s Twitter thread by clicking on the tweet embedded below.

Sarah Caul responded to Dr. Craig: “We are getting this sorted now.”

In the meantime, Igor Chudov has also taken a look at the data.


Let’s not lose touch…Your Government and Big Tech are actively trying to censor the information reported by The Exposé to serve their own needs. Subscribe now to make sure you receive the latest uncensored news in your inbox…


ONS Data: 25% Excess Mortality Among the Boosted is Obscured by Undercounting of the Unvaccinated

By Igor Chudov

Today, on 21 February 2023, UK’s ONS released the much-awaited ‘Deaths by Vaccination Status’ data set.

The report is expansive, shows covid-19 and overall mortality, and conveniently breaks it up by age, sex, or both – a very valuable and interesting resource.

It also shows “deaths per 100,000 person-years,” where the ONS statisticians calculated “person-years” lived by slices of the population they analysed, month-by-month. They divide the number of deaths in a given vaccination status category by person-years lived by that category to show us the mortality broken down by vaccination status.

That number of “person-years” is the denominator of the calculation.

The data appears soothing and demonstrates that unvaccinated people have somewhat higher mortality.

Be aware that the mortality per 100,000 person-years numbers is fake because ONS undercounts unvaccinated people by approximately one-half.

Let me demonstrate. Open up the latest ONS report in Excel. Go to the tab titled “Table 2” and go to line 2,616. You will see data for non-covid-19 deaths for March 2022 and age category 50-59.

Circled in red, I calculated the population percentage by vaccination status, computed based on person-years for each vaccination status, divided by total person-years for the entire age category for March 2022.

So, according to the ONS, the unvaccinated were 6.19% of the 50-59 subgroup population in March 2022. Were only 6.19% of 50-59-year-olds unvaccinated in the UK last March?

Let’s look for a better source of information!

In another window, open up UKHSA Week 13 vaccine surveillance report. Go to Page 17.

You will quickly see that for the same month, according to the UKHSA, about 87% of 50-59-year-olds had at least one dose of the vaccine, so 100-87=13% of 50-59-year-olds were unvaccinated last March of 2022!

So, whose number is correct? Were only 6.19% of 50-59-year-olds unvaccinated at the time (per the ONS), or 13% (per the UKHSA)? The answer is that the second number (13%) from the UKHSA is correct and is based on databases of named UK residents eligible for vaccination.

So, the ONS understates the number of unvaccinated people by about 2x (depending on age category). Prof. Norman Fenton and Martin Neil discussed this in January. I also discussed that in November 2021 (yes, 2021!). See “Debunking fact checkers” here: ‘UK: death protection downward slide accelerates

Corrected Data Suggests Higher Non-Covid Mortality in the Boosted

With our knowledge from comparison to March 2022 UKHSA vaccination rates, let’s look at more recent all-cause death rates. Take a look at lines 999-1005 of the same ONS table. (all-cause deaths for 50-59 for Dec 2022, the most recent month of the report)

If the number of unvaccinated persons is undercounted by 2x, then their mortality is conversely OVER counted by roughly 2x – the precise calculation would require us to know the exact, corrected percentage of unvaccinated persons and corrected percentage of boosted persons, which we do not have, so this is a rough estimate. So, we would have corrected data along the lines of:

  • Unvaccinated mortality: 366/2 = 183
  • Boosted mortality: 229

These rough estimates suggest that boosted 50-59-year-olds experienced 229/183-1.0 = 25% greater mortality than the same age but unvaccinated people during December 2022.

Such estimates are quite consistent with the excess mortality that the UK experienced last December:

I am very sorry that the ONS used incorrect counts of unvaccinated people. Fortunately, we can correct them using publicly available, official UK data.

Such corrected counts of unvaccinated people lead to a much more realistic comparison of mortality between boosted and unvaccinated people, consistent with our observations of overall excess mortality in the UK.

Dear Substack authors: feel free to make similar calculations across other age groups. The results will follow the 50-59 age group. The undercounting of unvaccinated people by the ONS is pervasive across the entire UK dataset.

This is NOT a harmless mistake. Undercounting unvaccinated people will distract the public from looking at the real cause of excess mortality because ONS numbers falsely suggest that the boosted people experience lower excess mortality than the unvaccinated.

The opposite is likely true: as I have shown, the boosted people have higher excess mortality. Furthermore, corrected mortality explains the 20% or so excess mortality the UK experienced in December.

Do you think that the mistake was an accident? Do you think that my calculations are flawed? All opinions are welcome! [If you would like to note your opinions, please do so under Igor Chudov’s article HERE.]

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Peter Sutton
Peter Sutton
7 months ago

I contacted Caulfield a few weeks ago asking her for comments on Andrew Bridgen’s speech and the ton of evidence supporting it.
To be fair she did reply, she refused to answer any of my questions and basically insulted me for having asked them.

Caulfield is a liar and a criminal and she must be held to account along with the others.

Mark Deacon
Mark Deacon
7 months ago

Looked at the ONS building in the picture … barbed wire fencing etc.why are they so heavily protected? Can’t tell the truth?

I can go to many government buildnigs in the UK and they do not have that kind of security because it is a taxpayer paid for public space.

jesuz
jesuz
Reply to  Mark Deacon
7 months ago

It’s the lovely uk — barbed wire and warning signs interspaced with bollards and concrete slabs.

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7 months ago

[…] Go to Source Follow altnews.org on Telegram […]

VoicefromEurope
VoicefromEurope
7 months ago

Seven months to cook the books and prepare a communication strategy.
Result: ONS reputation in ruins.

jesuz
jesuz
Reply to  VoicefromEurope
7 months ago

They had a reputation?

biggrump
biggrump
7 months ago

Heaven forbid the ONS to put out unedited statistics that show the true figures with no manipulation whatsoever.

John Steeples
John Steeples
7 months ago

Information like this should be transmitted to governments, health authorities just remember when a doctor has trained a talk on oath. preserve life. He is not doing that today and this ought to go to court. They should be allowed to get away with killing so many people or maiming a lot of people damage to their bodies with the usually want of got it like me. I was an extremely healthy man, but now got things wrong with me because of the injections and I’ve only had 2 anybody thousand three. Watch out

A Person
A Person
Reply to  John Steeples
7 months ago

I don’t think they should be allowed to get away with it.

Parzival
Parzival
7 months ago

The latest UK data is still DEEPLY flawedBut Joel Smalley figured out a way to use the data that avoids the flaws. He showed that even this biased data shows the vaccines are a disaster.https://stevekirsch.substack.com/p/the-latest-uk-data-is-still-deeply?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=548354&post_id=104491209&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email

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7 months ago

[…] Like my friends, the Expose wasn’t fooled either. Here is their article ONS has finally released Deaths by Vaccination Status data for England – and its flawed. […]

Gravity 2
Gravity 2
7 months ago

Thanks to Igor for the important clarification. WTF? who has heard of:
‘person-years” lived by slices of the pop’ ?

This absolutely makes no sense especially for those who had to take statistics twice.

“deaths per 100,000 person-years,” where the ONS statisticians calculated “person-years” lived by slices of the population they analysed, month-by-month.

Sounds like they know the stats show conclusively that there are far more excess deaths for the vaxxed but just cooked up a misnomer called “100,000 person-years” to cook the books.

The whole country has become so corrupt pushing these toxic non-vaxxine bioweapons and then punishing anyone who questions or speaks out about how toxic the bioweapons really are because the unspoken agenda is depop.

trackback
7 months ago

[…] Like my friends, the Expose wasn’t fooled either. Here is their article ONS has finally released Deaths by Vaccination Status data for England – and its flawed. […]

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7 months ago

[…] Like my friends, the Expose wasn’t fooled either. Here is their article ONS has finally released Deaths by Vaccination Status data for England – and its flawed. […]

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7 months ago

[…] Like my friends, the Expose wasn’t fooled either. Here is their article ONS has finally released Deaths by Vaccination Status data for England – and its flawed. […]

J P
J P
7 months ago

This data set is a joke for estimating person years for unvaccinated.
Non-COVID-19 deaths for 60-69 Age Unvaccinated Group:
Year Month Age-standardised mortality rate / 100,000 person-years Count of deaths Person-years
2021 Apr 2,422 595 25,961
2021 May 2,170 504 24,556
2021 June 1,594 344 22,227
2021 July 1,720 363 22,015
2021 Aug 1,350 277 21,458
2021 Sept 1,561 309 20,453
2021 Oct 1,507 306 20,918
2021 Nov 1,560 300 20,065
2021 Dec 1,684 332 20,514
2022 Jan 1,372 271 20,301
2022 Feb 1,384 241 18,276
2022 Mar 1,361 265 20,274
2022 April 1,196 223 19,691
2022 May 1,205 232 20,434
2022 June 1,112 214 19,872
2022 July 1,314 256 20,637
2022 Aug 1,078 212 20,739
2022 Sept 980 193 20,172
2022 Oct 1,107 219 20,947
2022 Nov 1,033 204 20,367
2022 Dec 887 183 21,151
From Apr 2021 at the beginning of the rollout to Dec 2020 for this age groups the number vaxxed barely changed since the vaxxed person years barely changed, too little change, likely fudged data here both overerestimating age adjusted mortality rates for the unvaccinated since denominator to low at beginning of vaxxing time, and plus was an overestimate of vaxxed and underestimate of unvaxed to push vaccination to lie “since everyone else of doing it.” – JP

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6 months ago

[…] number of “person-years” is the denominator for ONS’s calculation.  But, as we noted in a previous article, the determination of this denominator is flawed because, for example, ONS had not included data […]

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6 months ago

[…] Like my friends, the Expose wasn’t fooled either. Here is their article ONS has finally released Deaths by Vaccination Status data for England – and its flawed. […]

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7 days ago

[…] 14 The Exposé February 22, 2023 […]

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[…] 14 The Exposé February 22, 2023 […]

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5 days ago

[…] 14 The Exposé February 22, 2023 […]

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[…] 14 The Exposé February 22, 2023 […]