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Joel Smalley compares data for Sweden to Italy, Austria and Texas.  Dr. Paul Alexander compares data for India, South Africa, Portugal and Australia.  And Gerry O’Neill notices another set of statistics begins to “go south from the ‘Official Ireland’ point of view.”

Meanwhile, just a week ago Medscape reported that the NHS ‘needs 13,000 more beds’ to ease the pressure on emergency care.

Joel Smalley is a British quantitative data analyst, Dr. Paul Elias Alexander is a Canadian health researcher and Gerry O’Neill is an Irishman who has been writing counter-narrative articles for 7 years.

Sweden from Villain to Hero!

Sweden bucks the trend of post-vax excess mortality. Why?

By Joel Smalley,5 June 2022

I love the way that the people who decried Sweden’s light-touch approach to dealing with Covid pre-vax are now trying to use Sweden as the evidence that the mRNA injections are not necessarily the reason for super-excess mortality since they were introduced.

The suggestion is that the excess is mainly due to the negative effects of the interventions (as if that is somehow more acceptable).

One thing we can agree on is that Sweden has indeed not experienced anywhere near the levels of excess mortality post-vax. Compare these charts to Italy and Austria, for example:

Below is an images slider, click on the arrows on either side of the image or swipe to view the next or previous graph (6 graphs).

Given that the increases in excess deaths are closely correlated with Covid mortality, exemplified here in Texas, I think it is less likely that Sweden’s success is due to lower collateral harms of interventions.

In my opinion, it is probably more likely to be due to higher levels of natural immunity that has protected the young recovered (you know, just like centuries of epidemiology suggest is the reason why we haven’t already gone extinct!) but unfortunately not quite enough herd immunity to protect the over 70s from the pernicious impact of the jab.

Perhaps they were lucky enough to get proper training for their immune system before getting it disrupted by the faulty jab, making them less susceptible to original antigenic sin?

India, Portugal and South Africa, Three Nations Behaving Differently

Why have the three nations behaved so differently in recent omicron sub-variant (BA 4/5 waves)? In fact, across the entire pandemic?

By Dr. Paul Alexander, 5 June 2022

Once again, throwing out some data and information for debate. All are welcome to partake as none of us has all the answers and we still try to learn. I do and I am always open to criticism and schooling. I welcome that and yearn to learn daily. We are still trying to understand this and the devastation by these Covid injections, especially the mRNA ones.

Here goes. This goes back to what others and myself have been saying, in that the unvaccinated in the South African population may be benefitting (very likely), especially the younger persons, from the training of their innate immune system from the constant infectious pressure and exposure and re-exposure as the virus is circulating; the innate antibodies (Ab) are becoming trained and learn, in a way a type of ‘memory’ develops though you would know that it is the acquired adaptive immune compartment (systemic compartment) that forms memory (memory B-cells that churn out Abs on re-exposure).

This ‘training’ of innate immunity (Abs) allows the unvaccinated to better cope with exposure and the Abs can sterilise/eliminate the virus. The poly-specific low-affinity, broad, innate Abs are not ‘outcompeted’ or subverted by the antigen highly specific, ‘vaccine induced’ Abs (that are non-neutralising and so only partially if at all, neutralises the virus’ spike).

The proportion of the population vaccinated:

In Portugal on the other hand, the heavily vaccinated (and the population is 80-90% to near 100% vaccinated and boosted) may be contributing to the immune system being subverted and impaired and the non-neutralising or partially neutralising Abs (omicron sub-variants are now largely resistant to the vaccine-induced Abs) are likely binding to the virus but not neutralising (or only partially) the spike (preventing infection). The vaccinal Abs binding to the spike may also block the innate Abs from binding, thus the innate Abs are unable to sterilise the virus, eliminate it or prevent infection. The innate Abs thus lose their functional capacity to sterilise the virus while being subverted and neutralisation is constrained.

Do you see the issue of not coming down to baseline? That infection levels are elevated even after the wave and hangs out there placing tremendous infectious pressure. There is no ‘herd’ immunity when the curves look like this.

Some suggest massive chemoprophylaxis programs societally to reduce the infectious pressure. So that the mounting mass population of non-neutralising Abs have less virus to pressure and thus will have less risk of viral immune escape. What do you think? The problem is societies will not implement that (will not happen) for they still do not ascribe to the potency and role of early treatment and prevention of anti-virals in Covid. So infectious pressure must come down via other means.

Look at India’s curves today, still near flat, infection, cases, deaths. Did their aggressive use of chemoprophylaxis and early treatment pre-omicron, help them stave off infection, cases, and severe outcomes? I say yes.

They also were a nation that benefitted from limited vaccination especially early on (initially, though reports are that they are ramping up vaccination more recently) as there was very massive infectious pressure and their innate immune systems were trained. They are also a much younger population e.g., < 40 years old (South Asian nations are principally younger).

Let us look at South Africa’s recent omicron BA 4 and BA 5 sub-variant experience with a more blown-up graph. See how the peaks get higher each successive curve, they get closer (more rapid) and do not get back to baseline. This is a really huge problem not returning to baseline. Yet see this last 5th wave, it seems that with the least vaccinated South Africa, their population has weathered the 5th wave:

How is Australia doing today with the omi sub-variants? Do you see the issue with the downward side of curves not coming down to baseline?

These two are key studies to keep in mind for further and deeper reading:

Folman et al: “We analysed data from 1,789 participants (1,298 placebo recipients and 491 vaccine recipients) with SARS-CoV-2 infection during the blinded phase (through March 2021). Among participants with PCR-confirmed Covid-19 illness, seroconversion to anti-N Abs at a median follow up of 53 days post-diagnosis occurred in 21/52 (40%) of the mRNA-1273 vaccine recipients vs. 605/648 (93%) of the placebo recipients (p < 0.001).”

This Follmann study shows us alarmingly what the UK data said in week 42, that there was and is subversion of making Abs to the nucleocapsid (a more stable ‘conserved’ protein that envelops the mRNA in the core of the virus) in vaccinated persons. This means natural ‘cellular’ immunity (memory) is being impacted and not being induced in vaccinated persons.

I again draw your attention to the seminal study by Yahi et al. “Infection-enhancing anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies recognize both the original Wuhan/D614G strain and Delta variants. A potential risk for mass vaccination?”  The key Yahi finding and thus take away phrase IMO is:

“As the NTD is also targeted by neutralising antibodies, our data suggest that the balance between neutralising and facilitating antibodies in vaccinated individuals is in favour of neutralisation for the original Wuhan/D614G strain. However, in the case of the Delta variant, neutralising antibodies have a decreased affinity for the spike protein, whereas facilitating antibodies display a strikingly increased affinity. Thus, ADE may be a concern for people receiving vaccines based on the original Wuhan strain spike sequence (either mRNA or viral vectors).”

Irish “Death Events” Trending Over 9,000 in Q2 2022

This is nearly 3,000 higher than Q2 2021. Why?

By Gerry O’Neill, 5 June 2022

December 10^th was the last week the CSO produced its Covid-19 Insights volume. This in itself is odd as the two months, post-December 10^th saw Ireland hit with more cases of the disease than in the previous 18 months combined.

Why did they stop producing these reports?  I suppose we can only go into hypothesis mode now. But one could argue that the statistics were starting to skew badly away from the mainstream narrative.

I bring it up because I have seen another set of statistics begin to go a little bit south from the Official Ireland point of view. The all-cause mortality statistics. As you can see from the below statistics Ireland recorded roughly 1,300 more deaths in 2021 than in 2020.

Now, I’ve seen many people read a lot into this increase but on its own, it doesn’t really tell us much. To my mind, these are very bare comparisons and deaths can be open to non-statistically relevant fluctuations year to year. If these deaths are in some way vaccine-related it was a trickle as opposed to a flood at the end of 2021. Or so it seemed.

However, where things get interesting and more promising for the vaccine sceptic is when you zoom the lens in on Q4 2021. The death statistics for those three months saw an excess of just shy of 1,230 deaths over Q4 2020.

One way of framing that is to say that nearly all of the 2021 surplus deaths occurred in the final quarter of the year. A quarter incidentally when every age cohort had a month or two at least to avail of the double jab. And also, a period when many older people had already begun receiving their third shots.

Again, one quarter of lop-sided death figures could be an anomaly. But it is an interesting thread to pull on nonetheless.

Now, if the hypothesis about the underplayed danger of the vaccines is to survive rigorous examination, we would expect to see the same trend continue in Q1 2022 as we noted in Q4 2021. Unfortunately, we do not yet have the data for Q1 2022 deaths.

However, what we do have though is a very worrying statistic from deathevents.gov.ie. In short, this site records weekly death events in Ireland. This seems to be a rolling 8-week recording of all death events in the country and the information is then distributed to various public bodies.

The Death Events is a service that distributes information on death events to public sector bodies.  This information contains details on all deaths notified to the General Register Office. It is currently updated every Friday at lunchtime.  There are currently 1,309,277 death events published between Dec. 31, 1980, and June 3, 2022.

I assume this register notifies the different government agencies affected by a person’s death so that they may record the fact on various social welfare payment platforms, property registers and revenue systems. And doesn’t yet have enough data to establish the cause of death. So, bear that in mind. But in the past 8 weeks according to this tracker, there have been 5,923 recorded death events in Ireland.

Now, what we can attempt to do here is compare this most recent 8-week period of deaths with the 13-week Q2 2021 death statistics to see how they match up.

So, in Q2 2021 6,700 deaths were recorded against the 5,923 recorded in the last 8 weeks on the death event tracker. If we assume the same rate of death for the next 5 weeks as the previous 8 weeks and extrapolate that out to a 13-week number for comparison with Q2 2021 and Q2 2020 deaths, it should give us a fair indication of what way deaths are tracking in the state. Up or down. And to possibly see if this Q4 2021 CSO death data was an anomaly or indicative of the beginnings of a new trend. Again, bear in mind this is something of a jump and should only be used for trending purposes.

If we do a mathematical calculation of these death event statistics it indicates that the number of deaths in Ireland for 13 weeks from April 15^th out to mid-July 2022 is tracking at over 9,300 deaths for the three months.

This works out at almost 3,000 more deaths than Q2 2021 and even 1,000 more deaths than Q2 2020. Remember too, Q2 2020 was the height of the 1st wave mania and one of the high water-mark Covid-19 death wave periods. Supposedly.

Even if death events were to suddenly stop happening over the next 5 weeks it would be unlikely for this tracker to come under 9,000 come the end of this current 13-week period.

The other point of note is that this is a weekly tracker. While there may be some anomalies week to week it is unlikely to contain a dump of 2021 deaths in it. Or if it does some people in our civil service division need to become part of our unemployment statistics.

It would seem we are trending to record more deaths in Q2 of 2022 than even at the height of Covid in Q2 2020 and worryingly looking at 3,000 more deaths in the current quarter than in Q2 2021. Obviously, these figures come with all the usual health warnings but with trends like this, the vaccine doomsayers ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. The death trends in Ireland are helping their hypothesis at the moment and certainly not hurting it.

I’d advise people to start pressurising the CSO in case someone gets it into their head to delay publishing the Q1 2022 vital statistics.

NHS ‘Needs 13,000 More Beds’

Cuts in the number of hospital beds in the UK must be reversed before any significant improvements in emergency medicine and other NHS services can happen, a new report says.

Improvements in A&E waiting times, ambulance response times, and ambulance handover delays depended on providing 13,000 extra hospital beds, matched by appropriate staffing levels, according to the Royal College of Emergency Medicine (RCEM).

The RCEM analysis gives various reasons for how this urgent need arose: hospital beds have been lost since 2010; Covid-19 infection controls; and, cuts to mental health beds.  And according to Dr Adrian Boyle, RCEM vice president: “The health service is not functioning as it should and the UK Government must take the steps to prevent further deterioration in performance and drive meaningful improvement, especially ahead of next winter.”

Responding to the report, Pat Cullen, RCN general secretary, said funding for more nurses to staff extra capacity was vital. “Extra beds or whole wards are only safe when there are enough nurses for the patients in them.”  Adding, “a fully funded workforce plan and [to] pay nursing fairly” is required.

However, a Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: “We recognise the pressure on urgent and emergency care services and we have set out our plan to help tackle the Covid backlog, backed by record investment.

“There are record numbers of doctors, nurses and overall staff working in the NHS, and we have commissioned NHSE [NHS England] to develop a long-term workforce strategy.

“The NHS is taking a range of actions – including providing an additional £50 million of funding to support increased NHS 111 call-taking capacity this year – to help people access urgent care when they need it.”

Read more: NHS ‘Needs 13,000 More Beds’ to Ease Pressure on Emergency Care, Medscape, 31 May 2022

“Increased NHS 111 call-taking capacity this year.” What could be causing that we wonder?