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FACT CHECK – NHS Chief Stephen Powis & “Doctor Oxford” use 7-months-old Data to claim 75% of Covid-19 Patients in ICU are Unvaccinated

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Over the weekend, the British public were lied to once again by the very people they should be able to trust, after they were told by both palliative care doctor Rachel Clarke, and national medical director of NHS England Professor Stephen Powis, that 75% of those in intensive care with Covid-19 are people who have chosen not to be vaccinated.

Dr Rachel Clarke, or Doctor Oxford as she also likes to be known, is an NHS palliative care doctor and author of the book ‘Breathtaking’, published in January 2021, which alleges to reveal what life was really like working on NHS Covid-19 wards during the first wave of the pandemic.

On Sunday 28th November, Dr Clarke spent the day on Twitter retweeting every person who complimented the article she had authored for The Sunday Times, in which she sucks the reader in with a story about a young mother fighting for her life who has chosen not to have the Covid-19 vaccine.

You would be forgiven for thinking the woman described has succumbed to the alleged Covid-19 virus, but it turns out she has actually been treated for cancer and developed pneumonia that has no relation to Covid-19. The story was of course designed to pull on the heart strings before the usual propaganda about how important it is to get vaccinated was spewed.

Dr Rachel Clarke goes on to explain that in her NHS trust, they once again have entire wards devoted to treating Covid patients, and claims they are giving their all to care for their share of the 8,000 patients in UK hospitals with Covid, but that they quietly continue to die at a rate of about 1,000 a week.

Dr Clarke is nearly correct with her numbers on Covid deaths per week, except for the part where she claims these are the numbers for the whole of the UK. Unfortunately this is just the number that are currently dying in England.

But the cashing-in-on-a-tragedy author then goes on to make the claim that nearly 75 percent of Covid-19 patients treated in intensive care in recent months have been those that have chosen not to be vaccinated.

Unfortunately, for people who like to be told the truth, this outrageous lie was then echoed in another article published by The Sunday Times, with the comments being attributed to the national medical director of NHS England, Professor Stephen Powis.

Professor Stephen Powis, the national medical director of NHS England, said: “The vaccine is safe, effective and proven to reduce deaths, hospitalisations and infections and, in fact, data shows that the overwhelming majority of people admitted to intensive care with Covid are not fully vaccinated.

“Since July one in four critical beds have been consistently occupied by a Covid patient, with the latest statistics available showing three quarters of them are unvaccinated. These are beds that would have historically been used to provide life-saving surgeries for the most seriously ill patients.”

As is usually the case when these so called experts make a claim, they fail to actually cite the source data for us to check their claims for ourselves. Why? Because we should just trust them of course, they went to University don’t you know?

But thankfully Dr Rachel Clarke / Doctor Oxford informed the Twitter Universe which data, she and Professor Stephen Powis, were referring to when they made the claim that nearly 75% of Covid-19 patients in ICU are unvaccinated.

So we checked out the latest ICNARC report to see if she was telling the truth, and if you count 5-7 months ago as being the “most recent months” then we suppose you could say that she was.

Because it turns out the data she was citing covers the period from May 1st 2021 to 31st July 2021 (in case you haven’t noticed, Christmas is just a few weeks away, so they’re definitely not the most recent months).

Not only is the data cited by Dr Rachel Clarke, and Professor Stephen Powis, 5 – 7 months out of date, it also covers a period when the number of people in ICU with Covid-19 was at its lowest in 2021, and when a large chunk of the population were either unvaccinated or just partly vaccinated.

As you can see above the number of Covid-19 patients in mechanical ventilation beds has risen significantly and stayed at the increased level since the data cut off point of July 31st in the ICNARC report, and guess what – the majority of Covid-19 patients since July 31st have been people who had chosen to be fully vaccinated.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) publish a weekly ‘Vaccine Surveillance’ report containing statistics on Covid-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths by vaccination status across England over the past four weeks.

Their latest report, published Thursday November 25th covers data on infections, hospitalisations and deaths from Week 43 to Week 46 of 2021 (October 25th – November 21st).

The report reveals that there were 833,332 recorded Covid-19 cases, 9,094 Covid-19 hospitalisations and 3,700 Covid-19 deaths from October 25th to November 21st. Of these, the unvaccinated accounted for 39% of all cases, 34% of all hospitalisations, and 19% of all deaths. Whilst the vaccinated accounted for 61% of all cases, 66% of all hospitalisations, and 81% of all deaths.

Now of course this is only the last four weeks, so we analysed three months worth of data just to prove to you that when Professor Stephen Powis and Dr Rachel Clarke tell you that “The vast majority – nearly 75% – of those in ICU with Covid are unvaccinated”, they are not telling you the truth.

The following chart shows the total number of hospitalisations over four week periods from August 30th to November 21st 2021 as per table 9 of the Vaccine Surveillance reports.

We used the following reports for our analysis –

The chart shows that hospitalisations among the unvaccinated have floated around the 3,000 mark over four week periods throughout the past three months.

But unfortunately for the fully vaccinated population, hospitalisations among this group have been getting progressively worse by the month.

This shows that the fully vaccinated are currently the biggest burden on the NHS, not the unvaccinated.

The following chart shows the total number of deaths over four week periods from August 30th to November 21st 2021 as per table 10 of the Vaccine Surveillance reports.

From August 30th to November 21st, England recorded a total of 9,592 deaths. Of these just 1,882 were among the unvaccinated population, whilst a shocking 7,710 were among the vaccinated population, with nearly 3,000 of these deaths occurring in just the last four weeks.

So there you have it, with 65% of hospitalisations and 80% of Covid-19 deaths being among the vaccinated population over the past three months according to the most recent data (not 5-7 months old data), it turns out that over the weekend, the British public were lied to once again by the very people they should be able to trust, after they were told by both palliative care doctor Rachel Clarke, and national medical director of NHS England Professor Stephen Powis, that 75% of those in intensive care with Covid-19 are people who have chosen not to be vaccinated.

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SayAgain
SayAgain
10 months ago

Just seeking some clarification here – a few of the comments on the times articles are essentially saying that when you adjust for the fact that the vast majority of people are actually vaccinated, then it’s clear the risk of severe disease in unvaccinated is much higher.. I’m struggling with this, but based on the numbers above if you have say 7700 deaths out of a double-jabbed population of around 46m means 167 out of a million die, and if you say 1900 out of an unjabbed population of 22m then 86 in a million die. In which case a higher proportion are indeed dying from the vaxxed population. But one of the comment on the times article works this out using different numbers showing a clear benefit to vaccination – i’d really like clarification on this as it’s one of the main arguments currently being used to justify pushing for vaccination.

WendyRogers
WendyRogers
Reply to  Simon Lee
10 months ago

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Last edited 10 months ago by WendyRogers
Ruislip
Ruislip
Reply to  SayAgain
10 months ago

It doesn’t need to be that complicated. If 50% of the population is vaccinated and 50% of those in hospital with covid are vaccinated then the vaccinations is neither beneficial nor detrimental to your chances of being hospitalised. If 75% of the population is vaccinated and 50% of those in hospital with covid are vaccinated then the vaccines can be said to reduce your chances of hospitalisation. If 50% of the population is vaccinated and 75% of those in hospital with covid are vaccinated then the vaccines can be said to make you more likely to be hospitalised. As it stands, the UK is 67% vaccinated and 71% of those currently in hospital with Covid are fully vaccinated so the figures point to you being more likely to be hospitalised if you are vaccinated which is an appalling stat for a vaccine that is supposed to be effective. Making it more complicated than this is an attempt to deceive with obfuscation in my view. 

Yes, there are groups within this. For example, the young are less likely to be vaccinated, yet the young are also less likely to be hospitalised with Covid in the first place, so it evens out. 

On top of this, a person is not counted as vaccinated until 2 weeks after the vaccine has been administered. This could account for a large number of vaccinated people in hospital being put in the unvaccinated category. I’ve heard it could be as much as 50% of this group. In all, if a vaccine was anywhere near effective we wouldn’t even be having these discussions as it would be blatantly clear the vaccines worked as almost everyone in hospital would be unvaccinated and it would have been this way for the last 6 months.

SayAgain
SayAgain
Reply to  Ruislip
10 months ago

Yeah this pretty much sums it up. I’d like to know are there different sources for stats because the media have been pushing this message of how effective they are for months, are they using different numbers? Granted i accept the figures given in the article above and also the point that the Times have cherry-picked data, but i do wonder how they can justify this messaging if the data is so clear on it.

trackback
10 months ago

[…] November 29, 2021FACT CHECK – NHS Chief Stephen Powis & “Doctor Oxford” use 7-months-old Data to claim 75% … […]

Eleanor Sullivan
Eleanor Sullivan

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Last edited 10 months ago by Eleanor Sullivan
Richard Noakes
Richard Noakes
10 months ago

I read elsewhere that 45% of deaths are from those who are waiting the 14 days until they are declared to be vaccinated.
With regards to the vaccines themselves, that is a whole different ballgame: The article continues: “Vaccine efficacy is generally reported as a relative risk reduction (RRR). It uses the relative risk (RR)—ie, the ratio of attack rates with and without a vaccine—which is expressed as 1–RR. Ranking by reported efficacy gives relative risk reductions of 95% for the Pfizer–BioNTech, 94% for the Moderna–NIH, 91% for the Gamaleya, 67% for the J&J, and 67% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford vaccines.
“However, RRR should be seen against the background risk of being infected and becoming ill with COVID-19, which varies between populations and over time. Although the RRR considers only participants who could benefit from the vaccine, the absolute risk reduction (ARR), which is the difference between attack rates with and without a vaccine, considers the whole population. ARRs tend to be ignored because they give a much less impressive effect size than RRRs: 1·3% for the AstraZeneca–Oxford, 1·2% for the Moderna–NIH, 1·2% for the J&J, 0·93% for the Gamaleya, and 0·84% for the Pfizer–BioNTech vaccines.”
“Pfizer reported that its vaccine showed a 95% efficacy,” explained the documentary, entitled COVID Shot or Not? “That sounds like it protects you 95% of the time. But that’s not actually what that number means.
“That 95% refers to the ‘relative risk reduction’ (RRR), but it doesn’t tell you how much your overall risk is reduced by vaccination. For that, we need ‘absolute risk reduction’ (ARR).
AND
Dr-Ron-Brown November 5, 2021

Note that views expressed in this opinion article are the writer’s personal views and not necessarily those of TrialSite.
Dr. Ron Brown – Opinion Editorial
November 5, 2021
 Pfizer’s latest antiviral pill, Paxlovid (89% RRR), is your choice over Merck’s latest antiviral pill, Molnupiravir (50% RRR). However, your choice of antiviral pills to reduce risk of COVID-19 hospitalization or death is narrowed considerably when comparing the absolute risk reduction (ARR) of the Pfizer and Merck pills: Molnupiravir (6.8% ARR) barely beats out Paxlovid (6.2%). Why is the risk reduction of COVID-19 hospitalization or death so much lower in ARRs compared to RRRs? It all depends on how you manipulate the reported results of the Pfizer and Merck clinical trials.
The absolute risk reduction is the arithmetic difference in the rates of hospitalization or death—events or clinical endpoints in a trial—between the treatment and placebo groups
TrialSiteNews
So if you are vaccinated with Pfizer’s shot, you have an 0.84% of not getting Covid and Covid has a 99.92% chance of getting you, is my take on this and the other vaccines, well, use your calculator to figure that one out.

Brandy
Brandy
Reply to  Richard Noakes
10 months ago

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Last edited 10 months ago by Brandy
Deogi
Deogi
10 months ago

I am 69yo, an asthmatic and diabetic. I tested positive for Covid on 11/23/21 and the worst it has been was like one of my asthma attacks. No fever or prolonged coughing spells. No trip to the Drs. office (just to get tested for covid) or emergency room,

Paul Prichard
Paul Prichard
10 months ago

People shouldn’t be mislabelling anti-authoritarians as anti-vaxxers.
Your alternative update on #COVID19 for 2021-11-29. Omicron Very, Very Mild Cases = KEEP CALM. Tony ‘I Am Science’ Fauci = censor disagreeing science (link).

Evil Harry Dread
Evil Harry Dread
Reply to  Paul Prichard
10 months ago

The only thing I can ever see on that (paulthepaperbear) website, is the headline as per the link and then below it, The Great Barington declaration.
There is never any article, text or anything other than the headline of whatever link I’ve followed and then The Great Barrington Declaration.
It’s the same in Chromium and Firefox.
The only links that show different text are Bitcoin, Theta and Voyager.

Last edited 10 months ago by Evil Harry Dread
trackback
10 months ago

[…] November 29, 2021FACT CHECK – NHS Chief Stephen Powis & “Doctor Oxford” use 7-months-old Data to claim 75% … […]